1st 10 (6-4). 2nd 10 (3-7)
The return of Pascal Siakam Pascal had shoulder surgery over the summer and returned to the Raptors in their 11th game. It has been an up and down return with a few duds (8 pts and 4 pts game) and 1 stand out performance (32 pts on 10/12 shooting), but overall he is contributing decently across the board (17.7 pts, 7.2 reb, 3.4 ast, 0.8 stl, 0.9 blk). The Raptors will probably not lean on him to be the #1 option anymore, but they still need a strong performance overall from him every game to be able to win.
Scottie Barnes is still a Rookie There was a tweet made by a Raptors reporter that Scottie has now played more minutes this year than he did all of last year in college. He had a 3 game stretch where he had 10 points or less (with a low of 2 points), which had people worried that he hit a wall. He has since bounced back with consecutive 17 point games. Some are quick to blame Pascal Siakam, but they have actually worked well together. Scottie is a rookie and will go through ups and downs as he learns to play through a full season.
Key Injuries (OG, Birch, Yuta) OG has missed the last 5 games, Khem Birch has missed a total of 5 games as well, and Yuta missed all but 1 game this season. OG is the Raptor's defensive swiss army knife as he can guard all positions 1-5 and has been the #1 option leading the team at 20.1 ppg. Birch is still an undersized centre at 6'9, but he is still the Raptor's strongest player battling down low. Yuta has only played 1 game, but we got a glimpse of what the Raptor's have been missing; high energy, multiple efforts, and rim protection. The Raptors are built to be "positionless" but someone still needs to protect the paint and rebound, but these injuries have made it even more difficult as all three are plus defenders and rebounders.
Road Woes (8 of last 10 on the road) The Raptors have picked up 7 of their 9 wins on the road, but they have gone 2-4 on the recent 6-game road trip. For a young team, you might expect them to play better at home, but that hasn't been the case this season. The lack of practice and injuries on the road have caught up to the team and they should be looking forward to an extended home stand over the next 10 games.
Where's the Rebounding? The early season rebounding numbers was one of the keys to the Raptor's hot start, but they have now gone from 7th to 26th in RPG in the league. They have been outrebounded by bigger teams like the Jazz and Pacers in recent games. From the last 10 games, they have only outrebounded the 76ers and Kings, which were 2 of their 3 wins. Rebounding on both ends of the floor leads to second chance points, transition baskets, and overall more shots, which has been a recipe for success early on in the season.
Getting exposed on Defense The Raptors love to pressure and go over screens to put pressure on the ball handler to cause turnovers and transition opportunities, but when you combine this with overhelping, teams are getting more open 3s and offensive rebounds due to the chaos of always being in rotation. Injuries haven't helped, but Nick Nurse is still trying to find his rotations and schemes where they aren't getting exposed. They have dropped from 4th to 14th in OPPG and have given up more than 109 pts in 8 of the last 10.
Losing Points in the Paint The Raptors are not a team built to win by the long ball, which means they need to win the battle in transition and especially points in the paint. Early on in the season, they were consistently getting offensive rebounds, which led to more shots and points in the paint, but that advantage has all but disappeared. The only centers on the team, Achiuwa and Birch, are both undersized and no one has taken to the role of small ball center yet.
Still trying to find the Bench The Raptors are ranked dead last in bench scoring at 24.5 ppg, but they still need consistent production off the bench to relieve some of the pressure off their starters. Fred and OG lead the league in minutes at 1st and 2nd, Scottie comes in at 18th, and Gary Trent Jr is 31st. The Raptors are supposed to be deep, but few bench players have been able to establish their roles other than Achiuwa and Birch at center.
Fred VanVleet is the Raptor's MVP After the departure of longtime Raptor Kyle Lowry this offseason, a lot of people had questions about leadership and who would step up to fill in his shoes. It hasn't been a straight one to one replacement, but Fred has definitely rose to the challenge. He is undoubtedly the Raptor's MVP and it was clear that he was missing when we lost to the Pistons in the only game he missed this year.
IF we can get fully healthy, we have pieces Through 20 games, we have seen glimpses from the roster. Fred, OG, and Gary are shot makers. Scottie and Pascal can dominate on both ends. Banton, Boucher, Svi, and Yuta provide energy off the bench. And Achiuwa and Birch are solid down the middle. Is this team going to be better than a .500 team? Probably not, but with everyone healthy, the Raptors can be a tough team to play night in and night out. To compete, they will require a more consistent effort and performance from everyone.
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